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Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"When one sector is green and ten are red, the market just told you its address."
⚡ Today in 10 Seconds
Technology was the only one of eleven sectors to close green on Thursday, up 3.16%, which is why the S&P 500 gained 0.66% on a day when most stocks fell.
This morning, Nasdaq futures are down about 0.7% ahead of Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote at 10:00 AM ET, with PayPal off roughly 15% on a dead takeover and Gap up roughly 15% on earnings.
🎓 Focus of the Day, Secret #3: Follow The Money Into Sectors
Thursday looked like a rally and mostly wasn't. The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to a $771.10 close on $SPY, but technology was the only sector of eleven to finish green, up 3.16% on $XLK, while staples fell 1.38%, health care 1.13% and discretionary 1.09%. That is possible because the S&P weights companies by size and technology is roughly a third of the index, so one sector outvotes the other ten.
The cleanest check is $RSP, the equal-weight S&P, which counts all 500 companies the same: when $SPY rises and $RSP does not, the average stock is losing. Following the money into sectors means reading that grid before the index number, because "the market was up" and "your stocks were up" are different sentences.
BullBuzz Takeaway: Watch $XLK against $RSP in the first hour.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
🔔 Heading Into the Open
Stripe And Advent Walk Away From PayPal: Bloomberg reports the pair abandoned a roughly $53 billion pursuit; their rejected July bid was $60.50 a share and $PYPL is down about 15% pre-market. [confirm at send]
Warsh Takes The Jackson Hole Podium At 10:00 AM ET: his first keynote as Chair, with Chicago PMI at 9:45 and final Michigan sentiment at 10:00 sitting either side of it.
Nvidia Added Roughly $442 Billion In One Session: $NVDA closed $227.98, up 8.74%, its best day since April 2025, after guiding to about 70% revenue growth next fiscal year.
Bird's Eye: Money did not enter the market Thursday, it concentrated. Ten sectors were sold to pay for one, which is a positioning shuffle rather than a broad vote of confidence, and those unwind faster than real trends.
Ground Level: Oil firmed with $USO up 2.09% to $130.01, gold sits near $4,601 an ounce and Bitcoin is back under $80,000. Earnings, not macro, moved single names: Salesforce closed up 22.58%, CrowdStrike 20.50%.
Under The Hood: Marvell posted record revenue and still trades down about 6% pre-market, because it beat the analyst estimates and missed the higher bar investors had already priced in. That gap between "good" and "good enough" is the risk under today's open.
🎯 Idea of the Day
iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF ($IGV): Own The Aisle, Not The Shelf
IGV is a fund that holds roughly 120 large US software companies in one ticker, names like Salesforce, Oracle, CrowdStrike and Okta, weighted toward the biggest. Thursday it closed $110.32, up 7.74% on about three times its normal volume, its first close above the June high of $107.70.
Three unrelated companies reported the same night and told the same story: customers are paying extra for AI features inside software they already license. That is a sector signal, not a company signal, and acting on it through one stock forces you to guess who reports well next, a coin flip you do not have to take.
The fund buys the whole aisle, so you get paid for the theme being right and no single earnings date can break the position.
🔮 Prediction Markets
Todays pick is the September 16 Fed decision, because Warsh speaks at 10:00 AM ET and that is the event that moves it. Plainly: the crowd has come to us. Two days ago the venues priced a hold near 68% and we called that too low at roughly 78%;
Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad now sit near 74%. We hold 78% because core PCE stayed at 3.3% and July payrolls lost 23,000 jobs, so the remaining hike price is paying for Warsh's reputation, not for the data. But the edge is four points now instead of ten, and pretending otherwise would be the easy lie. [confirm odds at send]
BullBuzz Takeaway: Watch the 2-year Treasury yield during the keynote, since it tracks Fed expectations more directly than any stock.
😂 MEME OF THE DAY
For education only — not financial advice. BullBuzz™ by TRDR Media shares opinion and analysis, not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security. TRDR Media is not a registered investment adviser and does not manage or solicit funds. Trading and investing carry a substantial risk of loss and aren't suitable for everyone. Any prices, levels, or data may be delayed or estimated, and past results or prior calls don't guarantee future performance. You alone are responsible for your decisions. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.