Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Dell rose while Credo, MongoDB and Palo Alto fell, even though all beat earnings.
ADP added just 38,000 private jobs in August, the weakest month since January, so September hike odds slipped to about 62% from 68%, the 10-year closed at 4.780%.
Claims hit at 8:30 AM ET with ISM Services at 10:00.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #2: Respect The Macro Tape
Four big technology companies reported this week and all four beat. Dell rose 15.76% to $492 on a record $95 billion AI backlog, while Credo fell 20.04% with revenue up 115%, MongoDB fell 13.54% and Palo Alto fell 9.28%.
The index still rose 0.46%, and barely any of it was about them: ADP added 38,000 jobs, futures cut September hike odds to about 62% from 68%, and the 10-year backed off 4.818% to close 4.780%. Ten of eleven sectors finished green; technology, the sector holding all four stories, was the exception. That is the macro tape setting direction before any company gets a vote, and earnings only deciding who gets paid inside the move.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Broadcom printed the biggest AI quarter yet, after the bell. Revenue rose 86% to $29.6 billion and adjusted EPS beat at $3.32 against $3.16. AI chip revenue hit $16.7 billion, up 221%, with the current quarter guided to $21.7 billion.
Dell's backlog, not its quarter, is the number. Revenue was a record $47 billion, up 58%, but what moved the stock 15.76% was $60.9 billion of AI server orders and a record $95 billion backlog. Full-year revenue guidance went to $192 billion from $167 billion.
The weakest private payroll month since January reset the Fed trade. ADP counted 38,000 jobs against 47,000 expected and 46,000 in July. Futures cut September hike odds to roughly 62% from 68.2%, and the 10-year touched 4.818%, its highest since November 2023, before closing lower.
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper miners, a $106 billion company doing $25.9 billion in annual revenue from mines in Indonesia, Arizona and Peru, with gold as a large byproduct. It closed Wednesday at $73.93, up 2.01%, its first higher close after a five-session slide off a 52-week high.
Materials led every sector Wednesday at plus 1.69% while technology finished flat. Copper prices are off construction, grid, and factory demand rather than an earnings multiple, so it gains when rate pressure eases and loses nothing when an AI print disappoints. Freeport carries a second engine: gold near $4,425 an ounce, which rises on that same falling-yield move.
BullBuzz Takeaway: Watch $FCX against $XLK in the first hour.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's Eye: The market is trading the 10-year, not earnings, which is why four beats made four different stocks and one uniform index gain. Treat every print as noise inside a macro trade until claims and ISM clear.
Ground Level: Materials led at plus 1.69% and communications at plus 1.39% while technology closed 0.02% lower, with Nvidia up 3.2%, because Palantir fell 5.81% and Palo Alto fell 9.28% inside the same sector. Money is leaving crowded AI positions for what rate relief actually pays.
Under the Hood: Claims (205K expected) and ISM Services (54.5 expected) are the last reads before Friday's payrolls, and after a 38,000 ADP, the asymmetry is one-sided. A soft pair pushes hike odds under 55%; a hot ISM with claims under 200K puts the 10-year back at 4.82%.
🎲 PREDICTION MARKETS
Our read: HIKE 55%, revised down from 60%. We moved rather than quietly restate last week's number. ADP at 38,000 was the weakest private payroll month since January, and futures cut hike odds to roughly 62% from 68.2% within the hour. The oil shock that turned us hawkish is still in the inflation data, but the Fed does not hike into a labor market cooling this visibly. Friday's payrolls, not the barrel, settles it.
😂 MEME OF THE DAY
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