Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Broadcom reported $29.6 billion in revenue, with AI chip sales up 221% but still fell 2.74%, while everything else had its best day in a month.
The S&P rose 1.06%, the Dow added 624 points, and eight of eleven sectors closed green, financials leading at 1.56%.
Lululemon is down 19% pre-market on a guidance cut, the August jobs report comes at 8:30 AM ET, with 53,000 expected.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #4: Look Beyond The Obvious
Broadcom printed the largest AI quarter any company has ever reported: $29.6 billion of revenue, AI chip sales up 221%, and $115 billion of AI revenue projected for fiscal 2027. The stock fell 2.74%. One guidance line did it: fourth-quarter revenue near $34.8 billion against a $35.03 billion consensus, a miss under one percent. A beat only measures a company against expectations, and expectations here were enormous.
The money that skipped it went nearly everywhere else: financials, consumer discretionary and real estate all outran technology while the S&P gained 1.06%. When a print that big cannot lift its own stock, the trade was never the obvious ticker.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Broadcom beat everything except the forecast. Revenue rose 86% to $29.6 billion, adjusted EPS hit $3.32 against roughly $3.21 expected, and AI chip revenue of $17 billion was guided to $22 billion. It still fell 2.74% to $357.16, because fourth-quarter guidance near $34.8 billion landed under the $35.03 billion consensus.
Lululemon broke after the bell, down 19% pre-market. Revenue fell 4% to $2.415 billion against $2.461 billion expected, comparable sales dropped 9%, Americas down 12%, and the outlook was cut. Shares closed at $121.77, indicating a move toward $98, through the old 52-week low of $104.44.
The August jobs report at 8:30 AM ET is the last labor read before the Fed. Economists expect about 53,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.1%, after June and July together lost 3,000. Prediction markets price a September 16 hike at 41 to 44%, down from 48% a week ago.
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
M&T Bank ($MTB): Own The Spread, Not The Swipe
M&T Bank is a $34.7 billion regional lender with roughly 950 branches across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and it earns its money the old way: pay depositors a short rate, lend longer at a higher one. It closed Thursday at $240.06, up 1.94%, a third higher close off a $231.27 base.
Why not just buy the sector? Financials led all eleven sectors at plus 1.56%, so the reflex is $XLF. But Visa, Mastercard, and Berkshire are a quarter of that ETF, and payment networks barely care about the Fed. A regional bank is the pure version: price fewer hikes, deposit costs stop climbing while loan yields hold, and that gap is the whole business. $MTB outran $XLF on Thursday for that reason.
The honest risk. A hot payrolls number at 8:30 puts hikes back on and hits this trade first, which is why the entry sits below Thursday's close. M&T reports October 16, at the edge of the window, so plan to be out or reduced by then.
BullBuzz Takeaway: Watch $MTB against $XLF after payrolls. Bullish: a soft print, $MTB holding $235.50 and beating $XLF = the spread trade works, take the retest. Bearish: payrolls over 100,000, $MTB losing $231 = hikes are back, stand aside.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's Eye: This was a front-end rally, not a bond rally. The 10-year sat unchanged at 4.78% and $TLT added 0.15%, so Thursday's 1.06% came from pricing fewer Fed hikes, not cheaper long money. That determines whether payrolls help or hurt you.
Ground Level: Risk appetite was the tell: Strategy rose 17.56%, Robinhood 16.57%, Palantir 7.71% a day after falling 5.81%. The only red sectors were energy, materials, and staples, so money left defensives and commodities to chase beta. That is a risk-on chase, not a broadening.
Under The Hood: 53,000 expected is a narrow window. Under about 25,000 kills the September hike and pays financials, homebuilders, and small caps; over 100,000 puts hike odds back above 55%, and the high-multiple names give the most back.
😂 MEME OF THE DAY
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