Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"What everyone knows is not worth knowing."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
The Fed hiked 25bps to 3.75% to 4.00% exactly as priced, then the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting another one, and the Dow gave back 631 points while the 2-year jumped 7bps to 4.74%.
Today's trade is Arista Networks ($ANET) at $198.50 to $201.50, the switch vendor that closed green through all of it.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #4: Look Beyond The Obvious
The market priced this hike near 90%, and the market still fell, and that gap is the whole lesson. The decision was the obvious thing, so it was already in the price; what was not priced was the projection sheet, where 16 of 18 officials marked another increase in 2026, and the year-end median moved up a full band.
Look at which number actually moved: the 2-year yield, the one that tracks Fed expectations most directly, jumped 7 basis points to 4.74%, while the 30-year slipped a basis point. J.B. Hunt is the same lesson inside one stock, down 13.30% on a day crude fell 3.2%, because the cost that broke it was diesel at a record $6.31 a gallon, not the barrel everyone was watching.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023, a 12-0 vote, to 3.75% to 4.00%. The dot plot did the damage: 16 of 18 participants now expect another increase this year, and the 2026 year-end median moved to a 4.1% to 4.4% band from 3.6% to 4.1%. Chair Warsh submitted no dot of his own and struck a hawkish tone anyway.
Crude handed back the entire war premium. WTI settled at $102.43, down 3.2%, after the US Energy Secretary said the damaged Saudi pipeline outage would be measured in days, and EIA data showed crude stocks fell only 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million. Energy finished last of eleven sectors, with $XLE down 2.88%.
Amazon took a warrant on Generac in a backup-power deal worth up to $8 billion. The filing gives an Amazon subsidiary the right to buy up to 1.69 million shares at $200.93, vesting against payments for data-center generators, with initial deliveries around $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028. $GNRC is bid 31% higher pre-market.
Intel rose 4.03% to $101.05 on reports it is in talks to manufacture chips for SK Hynix in the US. That would be the first memory customer for Intel's foundry, the piece the turnaround has been missing. Northland upgraded the stock to Outperform, and Tigress lifted its target to $145, on roughly 120 million shares.
Banks wore the hike. Goldman Sachs fell 3.96% and $XLF fell 1.62%, the worst sector after energy, because a higher front end squeezes the gap between what a bank pays for deposits and what it already earns on fixed-rate loans. Regional banks, $KRE, fell 1.77%.
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Arista builds the high-speed Ethernet switches that move data between servers inside a data center, plus the operating system that runs them. It is a $249 billion company whose trailing revenue grew 32.6% to $10.54 billion, and it closed up 2.44% at $197.54 on the same day the Fed hiked, and the index fell.
A modern AI cluster is not a pile of chips, it is one machine, and what makes it one machine is the network. As models spread across more accelerators, more runtime goes to moving data between them than to computing, so switch ports scale with GPUs. That is why Nvidia's buildout and Intel's foundry fight end at the same purchase order, and why owning the interconnect captures the theme without having to pick which chip wins.
It trades at 42 times forward earnings, and a large share of revenue comes from a handful of hyperscale customers, so one budget decision moves the number.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures are buying the dip the Fed just created, $QQQ up 1.11% and $SPY 0.85%, while gold is bid 1.2% in the same hour. A tape that rallies stocks and buys insurance at once is repositioning, not convinced, so treat the gap as a level to test rather than a trend to chase.
Ground Level: Semis are leading again, $SMH up 1.86% and $SOXX 2.11%, a second straight session of chips shrugging off a rate shock. Energy is flat pre-market after a 2.88% drubbing, which says the barrel has stopped falling, but nobody is buying it back yet.
Under The Hood: Philly Fed at 8:30 is the print that matters, consensus 31.3 after 47.4, landing with claims and housing starts. A hot manufacturing number revives the October hike that both venues just priced down to a coin flip, and it hits before the bell.
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