Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"A flat index can hide a full rotation."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
The 10-year yield climbed to 5.18%, and the 30-year to its highest since 2004, yet the S&P 500 finished flat because money rotated into communication services and health care instead of leaving stocks.
Our idea is Thermo Fisher ($TMO), the biggest lab-tools maker, as the life sciences group breaks out on real growth.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #3: Follow The Money Into Sectors
On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose another 7 basis points to 5.18%, and the S&P 500 closed down just 0.08%. If you only watched the index, nothing happened. Underneath, a lot did. Communication services rose 1.27% as Meta gained 4.50% after its Connect event.
Health care rose 0.63%, led by lab-tools makers: Agilent jumped 4.55% on 10% to 11% organic growth, and Charles River rose 6.17% after raising its outlook. Meanwhile, materials fell 1.19%, utilities 0.98%, and staples 0.89%. That is not money leaving the market. It is money changing seats, out of bond-like and rate-sensitive groups and into companies with visible growth.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
The 30-year hits a 22-year high. Treasury data show the 10-year at 5.18% and the 30-year at 5.47%, its highest since 2004, after jobless claims fell to 197,000 against 201,000 expected. A strong job market keeps the Fed on track to hike: Kalshi prices an October hike at 67%.
Oracle invokes force majeure on its Stargate site. Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl, developer of its $165 billion Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico, after a key gas pipeline was delayed to February 2027. The move lets Oracle defer full rent if the site misses 2028; ORCL fell 3.47% and OWL 3.65%.
Akamai lands an $11.6 billion Anthropic deal. Anthropic signed a seven-year cloud commitment that could grow by another $9 billion, and received warrants for up to 5% of Akamai. Akamai will spend about $5.5 billion to build it, and shares are up 19.7% pre-market after a 6.78% drop Thursday.
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
$TW filled at Thursday's $100.23 open, inside our $99.50 to $101 zone, and closed $101.13, up 0.90%. $V closed at $367.98, $8 from Target 1. $MUSA ($519.28), $ARW ($227.33) and $LUV ($41.55) remain open, stops untouched.
Thermo Fisher sells the instruments, chemicals and outsourced services that drug makers, hospitals and universities use every day. It earned $6.97 billion on $46.3 billion of revenue over the past year and produced $7.3 billion of free cash flow.
Thursday's rally was not about Thermo. Agilent and Charles River both said demand from drug developers is improving, and Thermo is the largest supplier to that whole market. The stock closed at a 52-week high of $678.39 while the index was flat, a sign buyers are choosing it on purpose.
It is up 12% in two weeks and carries $42.6 billion of debt with rates above 5%, so we wait for a pullback instead of chasing.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures are higher, SPY +0.49% and QQQ +0.79% pre-market, as Brent slips 1.6% to $104.88, but the Dow is still on track for a fourth straight weekly loss. Durable goods at 8:30 are expected to dip 0.3%. A hot number helps stocks less than it hurts bonds, so do not chase the pre-market pop until the 10-year stays under 5.18%.
Ground Level: The Trump-Xi summit extended the truce to January 10 but produced no tariff cuts, no rare-earth commitments, and no chip relief. Our rare-earth lean yesterday was wrong, and we will grade it that way. With the big China questions pushed to January, treat China-sensitive chip stocks as range trades, not breakout trades.
Under The Hood: Oracle and Akamai tell the same story from two sides. At 5% money, the company that must finance a data center is the one invoking force majeure, while the company holding a signed seven-year contract gets a nearly 20% pop. Favor who gets paid over who has to borrow to build, and keep lenders like $OWL on the watch list, not the buy list.
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