Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Stocks fell Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.24%, its highest since 2007, while gold dropped 4% and a regulator's post sent FICO down 16% pre-market.
Our idea is BJ's Wholesale ($BJ), a low-volatility club whose gas pumps are pulling in members.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #6: Adapt
Last week's playbook was simple: buy tech dips on hopes of an Iran deal. Monday changed the facts. The 10-year yield hit 5.24%, and the 2-year jumped 11 basis points to 4.92%, a sign traders expect more Fed hikes; Kalshi now prices a 70% chance of an October hike.
Only three sectors rose: health care, staples and energy. Even gold, the classic fear hedge, fell 4%, because a 5% Treasury now pays you to wait. Adapting doesn't mean predicting the next headline. It means noticing when the rules of the tape change and shifting what you own, instead of arguing with it.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Bond yields hit multi-decade highs. The 10-year closed at 5.24%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year at 5.56%, highest since 2004, after the U.S. rejected Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Yields and oil are easing this morning as both sides talk through mediators (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Reuters).
FICO's mortgage monopoly cracks. FHFA Director Bill Pulte said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will merge their pricing grids into one that includes VantageScore, letting lenders skip FICO scores. $FICO fell 8% after hours and is indicated to be 16% lower pre-market near $704 (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance).
Nvidia authorizes a record $150 billion buyback. It is the largest buyback authorization increase ever, lifting Nvidia's remaining program to $235 billion through fiscal 2028. $NVDA rose 1.7% to $228.86 on a red day (Nvidia, CNBC, Bloomberg).
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
BJ's runs 267 membership warehouse clubs, mostly in the East, plus 206 gas stations. Members pay a yearly fee, which gives BJ's steady income no matter what the stock market does.
With gas near $4.50, members "flocked" to BJ's pumps last quarter: fuel gallons rose 10.5% while the industry's fell about 5%. Revenue jumped 15.7%, earnings beat, and guidance rose. BJ's also expects a one-time $240 million gain this quarter from a card-fee settlement. It gained 3.2% Monday while the S&P fell, and its beta is just 0.18.
Costco and Target are cutting prices, and a price war could squeeze margins. If Iran talks drop gas prices fast, the pump advantage fades.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures are steady, $SPY +0.09% and $QQQ +0.26% pre-market, as Brent eases about 1% to $104 and yields cool off from their highs. JOLTS and consumer confidence land at 10 AM, but Wednesday's PCE is the main event; the Cleveland Fed tracks core at 0.27%. Don't press size before it prints.
Ground Level: FICO shows how fast a moat can reprice when it depends on a government rule. Credit bureaus $EFX (-4.0%) and $TRU (-2.6%) are also lower pre-market, so the market is repricing the whole scoring toll booth. Check whether any stock you own leans on one regulator's approval.
Under The Hood: Gold miners ($GDX -5.4%) fell harder than gold (-4%), a reminder that miners magnify the metal both ways. Carnival reports this morning, testing whether $100-plus oil is hurting travel demand, and Micron follows Wednesday. Comms (-1.6%) and discretionary (-1.4%) led Monday's decline, so wait for them to stabilize before buying growth.
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