Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Consumer confidence fell to its lowest since 2014, the 10-year closed at 5.26%, and a Fed official cut October hike odds to a near coin flip.
Our idea is Ollie's Bargain Outlet ($OLLI), a closeout chain that gets stronger when shoppers feel squeezed.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #4: Look Beyond The Obvious
Tuesday's obvious headline: consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, its lowest since 2014, and the outlook gauge sits at 63.6, a level that often comes before a recession. The obvious trade is to sell anything tied to shoppers. But watch what consumers do, not what they say.
The same morning, Carnival reported record revenue and record customer deposits, raised its profit forecast, and jumped 13%. Economists expect this morning's data to show spending rose 0.9% in August. Surveys measure mood. Receipts measure behavior. When the two disagree, the money follows the receipts.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Consumer confidence sinks to a 12-year low. The Conference Board index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, far below the 89.2 forecast, as expected inflation over the next year rose to 6.1%. Job openings slipped to 7.08 million in August, though layoffs fell 3.6% (Conference Board, CNBC, Axios).
A Fed voter cools October hike talk. New York Fed President John Williams said there is "no need for urgency" after September's hike and sees one more increase late this year. Traders cut October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 44%; Kalshi now prices a 56% chance of a hold (Reuters, Yahoo Finance, CME FedWatch).
Boeing wins the Navy's next fighter jet. The Pentagon picked Boeing over Northrop Grumman for the F/A-XX, a development deal worth more than $20 billion that makes Boeing the only builder of sixth-generation U.S. fighters. $BA is up about 2.5% pre-market and $NOC is down about 3.9% (Breaking Defense, Aviation Week, Seeking Alpha).
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Ollie's buys other companies' leftovers, such as overstock, canceled orders, and discontinued packaging, and sells brand-name goods far below regular store prices. When other retailers struggle, Ollie's gets more cheap merchandise to sell.
The stock fell about 45% over the past year, but the business kept growing: second-quarter sales rose 9.1% to $741.3 million, adjusted earnings jumped 43% to $1.42 a share, and its Ollie's Army loyalty club grew 12.7%. Shares are up 18.5% since Sep 16 and rose 1.5% Tuesday while the S&P fell.
Same-store sales fell 1.8% last quarter, and management trimmed its sales forecast. After an 18% run, the stock is stretched, so wait for a pullback into the zone.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures are flat, $SPY +0.05% and $QQQ -0.08% pre-market, with the 10-year easing to about 5.21%. PCE at 8:30 is the swing factor: economists expect core prices up 0.3% for the month. A 0.2% print plus Williams' comments could push October hike odds under 40%, so be ready to add to quality names on that outcome, not before it.
Ground Level: Polymarket gives Micron a 96% chance of beating tonight, so a beat is already in the $1,065 price. Guidance moves this stock, not the headline number. If you own chip stocks, size them so a 10% gap either way doesn't force a decision.
Under the Hood: Brent's November contract expired near $104, while December trades near $97. That $7 gap means buyers still pay extra for oil delivered now, a sign supply stays tight despite Hormuz talks. Watch it narrow: that would signal oil easing, good news for airlines and cruise lines like $CCL.
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