Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"The trend is your friend until the end when it bends."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Inflation came in cooler than expected Wednesday, yet the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29%, its highest since 2007, and tech was the only sector to finish green.
Accenture is up double digits pre-market on a record quarter, and our idea is its cheaper peer Cognizant ($CTSH).
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #2: Respect The Macro Tape
Wednesday handed stock bulls the inflation print they wanted: core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose 0.2% in August against a 0.3% forecast, and the yearly headline rate eased to 3.4% against 3.7% expected. The bond market shrugged. The 10-year yield rose to 5.29% and the 30-year to 5.64%, a level last seen in 2002, while the 2-year slipped to 4.88%.
When short rates fall and long rates rise, investors are demanding extra pay to lend for decades, a worry about debt and future inflation, not next month's Fed meeting. Ten of eleven sectors fell. The macro tape is what prices do after the news, not the news itself.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Cool inflation, hotter yields. Core PCE rose 0.2% in August and 3.0% from a year ago, both under forecasts, partly due to a government change in how some services are measured. The 10-year still closed at 5.29%, its highest since 2007 (TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, CNN).
Micron crushes it, stock shrugs. Revenue hit $54.23 billion against roughly $51 billion expected, data center sales rose more than 11-fold to $18 billion, and next quarter's $61.5 billion forecast topped the $56.8 billion consensus. Shares are flat pre-market near $1,061 (Yahoo Finance, CNBC, The Tribune).
Accenture kills the "AI ate consulting" story. Quarterly revenue of $18.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.29 beat estimates, with a record 141 client deals worth $100 million or more. Shares are up about 14% pre-market, lifting IT-services peers (Investing.com, Stocktwits, stockanalysis.com).
Brent is back near $100. Crude jumped about 2.4% [confirm at send] on reports that PetroChina pulled October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes to protect supplies at home. Kpler says Gulf crude exports outside Iran are back near pre-war levels, so the squeeze is in fuel, not crude (Trading Economics, FMP, TheStreet).
Corteva splits in two today. The seed business starts trading as Vylor ($VYLR), and Corteva holders get one share for each share held. Screens showing $CTVA down about 78% pre-market reflect the spin-off, not a crash (SEC filing, stockanalysis.com).
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Cognizant is a $26 billion IT-services firm with about 351,600 employees that builds, runs, and modernizes software for banks, insurers, and hospitals, earning $21.6 billion in revenue over the past year.
Investors priced IT-services firms as AI losers, leaving Cognizant down 14% in a year at about 9.5 times next year's earnings. Accenture just showed demand is growing, not shrinking. When the leader proves the business is alive, the cheaper peer usually catches up, and 8% of Cognizant's shares are sold short, fuel for a squeeze.
Sympathy gaps often fade by midday, so wait for a pullback into the zone instead of buying the open.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures lean green, $SPY +0.37% and $QQQ +0.7% pre-market, but the 10-year still sits near 5.30%. A Nasdaq rally with yields at 2007 highs is a narrow rally, so own leaders and skip bounce trades in rate-sensitive stocks until the 10-year breaks lower.
Ground Level: Micron beat by more than $3 billion and is flat, while Accenture beat by less and is up double digits. That gap tells you where expectations were: memory is priced for perfection, IT services were priced for death. Don't chase $MU here; the better risk-reward sits in names the crowd had written off.
Under The Hood: ISM manufacturing at 10 AM is the swing, with economists expecting 55 and the prices-paid gauge near 72. A hot prices number gives bond sellers another reason and pushes October hike odds back up, so keep size small until 10:15.
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