Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Stocks edged higher Thursday as the 10-year eased to 5.24%, but Nike is down about 8% and Seagate about 11% before the bell.
The 8:30 jobs report decides the open, and our idea is Phillips 66 ($PSX), the refiner that lagged Thursday's fuel rally.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #10: Think Like A Risk Manager
The index barely moved Thursday, yet Nike is set to open down about 8% for a second straight drop, Seagate is giving back a slice of a roughly 240% run on one competitor headline, and Nektar lost 22% on a single data update. None of that shows up in a VIX near 16.
A risk manager doesn't ask, "Will I be right today?" but "How much do I lose if I'm wrong?" On a jobs-report Friday, that means smaller positions, stops set before the bell, and no averaging down into a gap. The traders who survive gap days are the ones who sized for them the night before.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Nike crashes again on a guide cut. Sales fell 4% to $11.2 billion, missing the $11.4 billion forecast, and Nike now sees full-year revenue down a high single-digit percentage, far worse than the roughly 2% drop analysts expected. A new $2.5 billion cost program brings more layoffs, and shares are down about 8% pre-market near $32 [confirm at send], after falling roughly 45% this year (CNBC, AP, Business Standard).
Jobs report lands at 8:30. Economists expect about 90,000 jobs in September, down from August's 162,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Jobless claims fell and private payroll data beat, so the risk tilts toward a stronger print (FactSet, Bloomberg, Newsquawk).
Factory prices jump, yields still ease. ISM manufacturing slipped to 54.5, under the 55 forecast, but its prices-paid gauge jumped to 77.9 against 72.3 expected, the highest since the Iran war began. The 10-year still eased 5 basis points to 5.24% (ISM, FXStreet, CNBC).
Hard drive makers crack. Seagate is down about 11% and Western Digital about 9% pre-market [confirm at send] after a report that Toshiba will expand hard drive output for AI data centers. Seagate had gained roughly 240% this year (Investing.com, stockanalysis.com).
Refiners rip as China halts fuel exports. Marathon Petroleum rose 6.25% and Valero 5.38% as China stopped October fuel exports and diesel margins widened. The White House is floating a diesel export ban, which prediction markets price near 10% for October (24/7 Wall St., OilPrice.com, Texas Tribune).
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Phillips 66 is a roughly $105 billion company that refines crude into gasoline and diesel, but also owns pipelines, a chemicals joint venture, and fuel marketing. It is up 94% in a year and trades near 8.3 times next year's earnings.
When China pulls fuel off the market, refiners earn more on every barrel. Pure refiners like Marathon and Valero jumped 5% to 6% Thursday; Phillips 66 rose 3.5% because its pipelines dilute the refining windfall. That same mix makes it the steadier way to own the theme if margins cool.
A US diesel export ban would trap fuel at home and squeeze refiner margins overnight.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures lean green, $SPY +0.43% and $QQQ +0.54% pre-market [confirm at send], and the 2-year fell 10 basis points Thursday. Bonds are pricing a softer Fed, which helps, but a 77.9 prices-paid reading says inflation is still in the pipes, so don't bet the farm on a rate-cut rally.
Ground Level: Thursday paid the "picks and shovels": chip design (Synopsys +12.8%), optics (Coherent +10.9%) and refiners. It punished stories that need perfection, like Nike and today's hard drive names. Buy companies with a fresh catalyst and avoid stocks that already doubled on hope.
Under The Hood: A print near 90,000 is the comfortable middle. A big beat with hot factory prices could lift yields and hit tech, while a print under 50,000 revives growth fears. Tesla deliveries are also due, with Kalshi near 89% on 475,000-plus versus a 461,974 consensus.
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