Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"Investing is not about beating others at their game. It's about controlling yourself at your own game."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
The Nasdaq fell 1.25% Thursday on an OpenAI revenue scare while energy, staples and insurers rallied, and this morning futures are higher even as Delta cut its forecast and SpaceX's spectrum deal rattled telecom stocks.
Our idea is Chubb ($CB), and the event to watch is Wednesday's 8:30 AM inflation report.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #3: Follow The Money Into Sectors
Thursday's index hid the real story. The S&P 500 lost only about 0.5%, but technology fell 1.8% while energy rose 3.0%, staples 2.1% and financials 0.9%. Money did not leave the market, it changed address, after the Financial Times reported OpenAI is earning less than it signaled and the 10-year touched 5.35%.
When yields near 5%, cash flows from companies that promise future profit to ones that earn it now. So before you check your own watchlist, check all eleven sector ETFs: the one that is green when the index is red tells you where the buyers went.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
AI stocks have their worst day since August. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% after the Financial Times reported OpenAI ended September near $50 billion in annualized revenue, below the $70 billion it had signaled. Bloomberg says OpenAI still expects $70 billion by year-end, which is lifting Nasdaq futures this morning. (Financial Times, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Quartz)
Long bonds find buyers near 5.6%. Thursday's $22 billion 30-year auction priced at 5.618% with a 2.54 bid-to-cover, stronger than average, and the 10-year reversed from 5.35% to close near 5.22%. The Fed hiked in September and traders have trimmed bets on another hike October 28. (investingLive, Reuters, Yahoo Finance)
Trump says no new Iran attacks before the midterms. Brent closed Thursday at $104.28 and trades near $104 this morning, with WTI near $90. A US pledge does not stop tanker attacks, so treat the dip in oil as conditional. (CNN, Axios, Al Jazeera)
Delta cuts its 2026 profit forecast. The airline earned $1.72 a share versus $1.82 expected and lowered full-year guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 from $6.50 to $7.50 as its fuel bill rose 62%. Demand is strong, but jet fuel is eating the profit. (TipRanks, Investing.com)
SpaceX buys wireless spectrum, telecom sinks and towers jump. SpaceX agreed to buy low-band spectrum from Grain Management for about $8 billion in cash, pushing Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile down 6% to 10% while American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA gained 6% to 10%. Investors bet satellite phone service threatens carriers but needs more towers. (Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, Stocktwits)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Chubb is the world's largest publicly traded property and casualty insurer, selling business, personal, farm and reinsurance coverage worldwide on about $62 billion of annual revenue.
Insurers collect premiums now and invest them in bonds, so a 10-year near 5.2% lifts every new dollar they earn. Chubb trades at about 12 times earnings with a beta of 0.37, and it rose 2.7% Thursday while the Nasdaq fell 1.25%. That is rotation in one stock, and the Thursday breakout shelf gives a defined entry.
A Gulf hurricane or a heavy catastrophe-loss quarter hits insurers, and Chubb reports October 20.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Thursday was a handoff, not a flight: tech fell 1.8% while energy, staples and financials rose. Treat this morning's 0.4% futures bounce as a test, and don't add semiconductors until $XLK clears Thursday's $201.26 high.
Ground Level: Single stocks are moving whole groups: Humana is up double digits after CMS rated its main Medicare plan four stars, and telecom is down 6% to 10% while towers jump. Don't buy telecom until SpaceX's timeline is clearer, and don't chase towers after a 6% to 10% day.
Under The Hood: Wednesday's CPI is the next binary, expected at 3.6% with JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo reporting Tuesday. With the 10-year at 5.2%, a hot print hurts more than a cool one helps, so size down rather than predict.
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