Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Stocks ended Friday near records, and futures are flat this morning, with Brent near $106 and bonds closed for Columbus Day.
Banks report Tuesday and September CPI lands Wednesday, so our idea is Nasdaq Inc. ($NDAQ), an exchange that earns fees on trading, data, and index licensing.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #4: Look Beyond The Obvious
The obvious Friday headline was that SpaceX’s $8 billion spectrum purchase threatens wireless carriers, and T-Mobile fell 13.3%. The less obvious trade was on the other side: Crown Castle rose 15.6% because a new carrier with little infrastructure needs towers.
One deal produced two opposite trades, and the second was open to anyone who asked who gets paid if the story is true. Before you trade a headline, ask who sits on the other side of it and who sells the picks and shovels.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Stocks end the week near records. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% Friday to 7,811.54, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%, as reports that OpenAI expects $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end eased Thursday’s AI scare. JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo reported Tuesday before the open. (La Nación, Trading Economics, TipRanks)
CPI is the week’s binary. September CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30 AM, expected at 3.6% from 3.4%, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast also at 3.60% on record September gasoline near $4.33. Treasuries are shut today after the 10-year closed Friday at 5.24%. (HeyGoTrade, Admiral Markets, U.S. Treasury)
Oil holds above $100 despite a new truce. Brent trades near $106 and WTI near $93 even after Trump announced Russia and Ukraine will stop targeting each other’s energy sites. Iran is still reviewing a US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (TipRanks, AOL, TradingKey, Stocktwits)
SpaceX buys $8 billion of spectrum and splits telecom. SpaceX agreed to buy low-band spectrum from Grain Management to become a mobile carrier. T-Mobile fell 13.3% Friday while Crown Castle rose 15.6% on hopes of new tower demand. (Benzinga, Devdiscourse, TIKR)
A Salesforce upgrade and a China chip scare move single stocks. Salesforce is up over 4% premarket after Bank of America upgraded it to Buy, while Micron slips on Chinese memory-maker progress. Iren rises on a reported Anthropic cloud deal. (TipRanks, TradingKey, Stocktwits)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Nasdaq Inc. runs the Nasdaq stock exchanges, licenses the Nasdaq-100 index, and sells market technology, data, and financial-crime software, about $5.6 billion in trailing revenue.
While traders argue over banks and CPI, Nasdaq earns fees on the activity itself, at a 48% operating margin and 21 times forward earnings. It slid from $101 in late August to $88.76 on September 16, then rebuilt with higher lows, so a dip to the last week’s shelf offers a defined entry.
A hot CPI can sink exchange stocks with everything else, and Monday’s $94.41 sits above our zone, so the dip may not come.
Earnings October 22 before the open; exit before.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: Stocks sit near records into the month’s two biggest catalysts, bank earnings and CPI, with the 10-year at 5.24% and Brent at $106. Prediction markets give about even odds of a 3.7% print or higher, so do not add index exposure before Wednesday’s 8:30 AM number, and size positions you can hold if you are wrong.
Ground Level: One deal reordered telecom and towers in a day. Do not buy T-Mobile after a 13% gap or chase Crown Castle after 15.6%, and treat Salesforce’s upgrade gap as a level to test, not a signal: let the first 30 minutes set it.
Under The Hood: Watch trading revenue and net interest income guidance in Tuesday’s bank reports, then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Strong trading lines support volume names like our idea; weak ones mean the volatility trade is fading, so cut size.
In partnership with
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