Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“You can’t predict. You can prepare.”
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Stocks slipped Monday as AI hardware sold off, and this morning Goldman beat big while JPMorgan missed, with Brent near $105 and the Nasdaq-100 ETF down 0.7% premarket.
September CPI lands Wednesday, so we're backing Kroger ($KR), a grocer at a three-month high.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #2: Respect The Macro Tape
Bank earnings show why the macro tape outranks the company. Goldman Sachs beat by a wide margin, while JPMorgan grew trading revenue 15% and still missed profit estimates, and both reported with the 10-year yield near a 24-year high and Brent above $100.
Monday showed the same thing: the S&P 500 ETF finished flat while technology fell 1.2% and staples and energy rose. A flat index can hide a sharp rotation. Before you judge a stock, check the rate, oil, and the sector tape it trades in, because that backdrop decides which good news gets paid.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Banks split on the first day of earnings. Goldman Sachs crushed estimates with an 18.7% return on equity, while JPMorgan’s adjusted $5.75 a share missed estimates near $5.90 even as trading revenue rose 15% to $10.3 billion. Wells Fargo missed on revenue and Citigroup reported a 40% profit jump. (Invezz, TipRanks, Reuters)
CPI is the week’s tiebreaker. September CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30 AM, with consensus at 3.7% year over year, the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 3.6% and August at 3.4%. The 10-year closed Friday at 5.24%, near a 24-year high, and is lower this morning. (Nowflation, U.S. Treasury, CNBC)
Oil slips but stays above $100. Brent fell about 1.8% to near $104.7, ending a three-session rally, as traders weighed more Russian supply after a US easing of diesel export limits. Middle East supply fears persist. (Trading Economics, FMP, CNBC)
AI hardware sells off again. Micron fell below $1,000 for the first time since September despite a record $35 billion buyback, as Chinese memory competition and AI-bubble worries hit chip names. Broadcom’s CEO also warned that access to capital could limit AI growth. (TipRanks, Invezz, Barron’s)
Bumble agrees to a $1.3 billion take-private. Ithaca Holdings will pay $6.05 per share in cash, a 138% premium to the October 9 close, a day after shares jumped 50% on a report of talks. (Reuters, TipRanks, New York Post)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Kroger is one of America’s largest grocers, selling food, fuel and pharmacy items through supermarkets nationwide.
Staples led Monday while AI hardware sold off, and Kroger closed at a three-month high of $62.56 after clearing its September peak. Groceries sell in every economy, so the stock gets bid when investors hide from rate and AI risk, and rival Albertsons pulling its guidance this morning puts the spotlight on the sector leader.
The honest risk is Albertsons is seeking at least $8 billion from Kroger in their merger lawsuit, so a court headline can hit the stock, and Monday’s close sits at resistance.
Next earnings expected in early December, outside the window.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: The tape is trading rates and oil, not earnings: the 10-year sits near 5.2%, Brent near $105, and CPI is 24 hours away. Do not add index exposure before Wednesday’s 8:30 AM print, and if you hold AI hardware, set your exit level today instead of after a gap.
Ground Level: Goldman is gapping up about 3% and Wells Fargo down about 3%, and UnitedHealth is up about 4% on a raised profit outlook. Do not chase any of these gaps in the first 15 minutes; let the opening range set the level, and favor the name that beat on quality, not the one that merely rose.
Under The Hood: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report Wednesday before CPI. A print of 3.8% or higher should lift yields and hit growth stocks, while 3.6% or lower favors $XLRE and $XLU, so keep a plan for both outcomes.
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