Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
All six big banks that reported Tuesday fell, and this morning Bank of America missed on a $1.2 billion penalty, with Brent near $106 and futures slightly higher.
September CPI lands at 8:30 AM, so our idea is Williams ($WMB), a natural gas pipeline toll road.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #6: Adapt
Tuesday punished good news. Johnson & Johnson fell 5.7%, and Citigroup fell 5.6%, and all six big reporters closed lower, because the market grades results against expectations, not against last year.
When oil is above $100, and the 10-year sits near 5.2%, a beat that was already priced in has nowhere to go. Traders who adapt stop asking whether a report was good and ask whether it was better than the price assumed. Write down that bar before the open, not after the gap.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
CPI arrives at 8:30 AM. September inflation is expected near 3.6% year over year, with some forecasts at 3.7%, and core near 2.5%. A hot core print is the one thing that could put an October Fed hike back on the table. (ForexFactory, Admiral Markets, Kiplinger)
The 10-year eases to 5.21% as Williams floats one more hike. The yield slipped 3 basis points, but the New York Fed president said another increase this year may be needed. Futures still price a hold on Oct 28. (U.S. Treasury, ForexFactory, Kiplinger)
Oil climbs on Hormuz and Saudi fears. Brent is near $106 as tanker attacks and Saudi supply worries keep a risk premium in crude. The IEA expects a diesel squeeze to last into 2027. (Euronews, CNBC, OilPrice.com)
BofA misses while BlackRock beats. Bank of America fell short after a $1.2 billion penalty, while BlackRock topped estimates on record assets. The split shows why the same quarter can produce opposite reactions. (Investing.com, 247WallSt, TipRanks)
Chips stay heavy even as ASML lifts its outlook. ASML raised guidance, yet Applied Materials fell 6.7% Tuesday as buyers kept selling good news. Equipment names now trade on the cycle, not the quarter. (ASML filing, Kiplinger, StockTwits)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Williams is one of America's largest natural gas pipeline operators, charging fees to move gas from wells to utilities and export terminals.
Oil is above $105 while good earnings are being sold, and a fee-based pipeline gets paid on volume, not on the commodity price. $WMB closed Tuesday at $74.57 after building a shelf from Oct 9 to 12, which is where the entry zone sits.
The honest risk is earnings are Nov 2 after the close, inside the window, so exit or size down before then, and a 5.2% 10-year weighs on yield-style stocks. The zone is below the premarket price and may not fill.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: CPI at 8:30 AM decides whether Tuesday's selloff was a pause or a trend. With the 10-year near 5.2% and Brent near $106, do not add index exposure before the print, and write down your exit level for any bank you own today.
Ground Level: BlackRock is up about 5% and Bank of America down about 4% premarket [confirm at send]. Do not chase either gap in the first 15 minutes; let the opening range set the level, and remember Tuesday showed that strong results can still sell.
Under The Hood: A CPI print of 3.8% or higher should lift yields and hit growth stocks, while 3.5% or lower helps $XLRE and $XLU. Keep a plan for both outcomes, because the first move is often reversed.
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