Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.”
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Tech bounced Monday (Nasdaq +1.1%, S&P 500 +0.4%) while utilities fell 2%, but futures are soft this morning as GM and Genuine Parts sink on cautious guidance.
Today’s idea is Steel Dynamics ($STLD), a record-shipment steelmaker sold on a small earnings miss.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #9: Review Losses Harder Than Wins
Monday and this morning handed out free lessons in losing. GM beat on earnings and revenue but still fell about 6% pre-market because its profit outlook narrowed and the midpoint missed what investors wanted. Genuine Parts did the same, down about 6% to 8% pre-market.
Our Southern Company idea filled Monday and closed 2.1% lower as utilities sold off, so we asked ourselves the same question: what did we assume? Keep a one-line loss log: what I expected, what happened, what I change. Do it for red trades and for green ones that surprised you.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Tech snaps back. The S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 7,690.73 and the Nasdaq 1.11% to 26,430.89 Monday, while the Dow slipped 0.07%. Chip stocks ended an eight-day slide, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.6%. (Reuters via Investing.com, Eurasia Business News, Stocktwits)
Yields tick up, Fed hold priced. The 10-year closed near 5.13% Monday, about 4 basis points above Friday’s 5.09%. Markets see roughly an 83% to 87% chance the Fed holds at its Oct 27 to 28 meeting. (Trading Economics, Eurasia Business News, Tapeboard)
Oil stays near $110. Brent settled at $109.55 Monday after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy, airport, and military sites, and trades near $111 this morning. (Reuters via Investing.com, Heygotrade, Eurasia Business News)
Good earnings, bad reaction. GM fell about 6% pre-market despite a $50.0 billion revenue beat because it narrowed its outlook, and Genuine Parts dropped on a trimmed forecast. RTX rose about 2% after raising guidance. (Investing.com, Benzinga, Stocktwits)
Merck KGaA buys Silence. The German drugmaker will pay $20 per share in cash, about $1.3 billion and a 130% premium, closing in the first quarter of 2027. Silence jumped 125.6% Monday. (Business Wire, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Steel Dynamics is an Indiana-based steelmaker that melts scrap in electric furnaces, with metals recycling, fabrication, and a young aluminum unit.
Q3 steel shipments hit a record 3.8 million tons, and the average price rose $102 to $1,400 a ton while scrap cost fell $8, widening the spread. The CEO cited low imports and tight lead times, and fabrication backlog is 50% above last year. The stock gapped about 6% lower pre-market only because EPS of $5.26 missed the $5.48 estimate, into the late-September shelf. The 11:00 AM call is the near-term catalyst, and the next report, around late January, is outside the window.
Aluminum still loses money; tariff or import changes can hit steel prices, and a weak call could break the shelf.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: Futures are slightly lower after Monday’s snap-back [confirm at send], with Brent near $111 and the 10-year at 5.13%. A bounce after an eight-day chip slide proves little until buyers hold the first half hour. Do not chase tech gap-ups, and keep size small while the 10-year sits above 5.20%.
Ground Level: Earnings are punishing “good but cautious”: GM and Genuine Parts fell on narrowed outlooks while RTX rose on a raise. Do not buy a beat-and-drop until the stock stops making new lows after the first hour. RTX is the cleaner read on defense demand.
Under The Hood: Housing starts hit at 8:30 AM (1.30 million expected), and homebuilders already fell Monday with long yields rising. SpaceX, Netflix (options imply about a 9.4% move), and United report after the close. Size down anything reporting tonight rather than guess the reaction.
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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘥. 𝘋𝘐𝘛 𝘈𝘨𝘛𝘦𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘌𝘹𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: https://bit.ly/4bzuWCi
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