Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does.”
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Futures are down about 1% (Nasdaq about 1.6%) after Meta, IBM, and Tesla revived AI-spending doubts and Brent hit about $112, even though Wednesday closed higher (S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1%).
Today’s idea is Halliburton ($HAL), an oil-services way to trade crude staying high.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #2: Respect The Macro Tape
Wednesday looked like relief: the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1% after SpaceX and Super Micro calmed AI-spending worries. Overnight, three reports undid it. IBM’s CEO said clients doubt some AI spending is paying off, Meta warned that serving costs will rise, and Tesla cut its capex plan, while Brent jumped to about $112 on Houthi strikes in Saudi Arabia.
Company results are the weather; oil, yields and the Fed are the climate, and when the climate turns, good news gets sold. The 10-year sits at 5.13%, and traders price a December Fed hike near 76% to 79%, so respect the macro tape before you trust a single beat.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
AI doubts return, futures slide. S&P 500 futures are down about 1% and Nasdaq futures about 1.6% after Wednesday’s chip rally. IBM beat estimates, but its CEO said clients worry some AI spending lacks returns, and the stock is down about 5% pre-market.
(Investrade, Benzinga, Stocktwits, Reuters via MarketScreener)
Brent hits a five-month high. Brent traded near $112, its highest since May, after Houthi strikes on a Saudi oil field and a U.S. order for non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia. WTI is near $99.
(OilPrice.com, Investrade, Amwal Al Ghad)
Yields are high; Fed hold priced in. The 10-year closed Wednesday at 5.13%. Traders see about a 90% chance the Fed holds on Oct 28 but roughly 76% to 79% odds of a hike in December.
(Capp Notes, Investrade, Polymarket, Kalshi)
Meta beats, then slides. Meta posted $64.6 billion in revenue (up 26%) and EPS of $3.83, above estimates, but free cash flow turned negative and 2026 capex guidance rose to $135 to $145 billion. Shares jumped after hours, then fell about 2.6% pre-market as the CFO warned serving costs will rise.
(Forbes, ZeroHedge, Stocktwits)
SpaceX profits, Tesla trims capex. SpaceX posted its first profit as a public company, and Musk called a Tesla merger a good idea, while Tesla beat on $28.05 billion in revenue and cut 2026 capex to about $20 billion. Both are lower pre-market, SpaceX about 3% and Tesla about 3.5%.
(Reuters via MarketScreener, Investing.com, Stocktwits)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Halliburton is one of the world’s largest oilfield-service companies, selling fracking, drilling, and well-completion work to oil producers, with a $28.3 billion market cap and a 2.0% dividend yield.
Producers keep the oil price, but service companies get paid when producers drill more. Brent near $112 is the strongest signal in five months, yet HAL closed at $33.99, below its 200-day average ($35.72) and about 11% under its Sept 3 high of $38.06. On Oct 20, the CEO guided 2027 to mid-single-digit revenue growth and margins near 15%. HAL reported then, so no earnings binary sits in the window; peer SLB reports Friday as a read-through.
Crude’s war premium can vanish on one ceasefire headline, and oil-service stocks swing hard with it, so stay frosty.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: Futures point to a roughly 1% lower open after Wednesday’s chip rally, with Brent near $112 and the 10-year at 5.13%. When oil, yields and AI doubts hit together, good earnings get sold. Do not buy the first dip; keep size at half until $SPY holds its opening range.
Ground Level: Oil is splitting winners from losers. Lockheed is up about 4% pre-market after raising its outlook on a record $292 billion backlog, while American Airlines is down about 3% after guiding to a fourth-quarter loss on $4.70 fuel. Lean toward defense and away from airlines until crude stops rising.
Under The Hood: Jobless claims hit at 8:30 AM (about 200,000 expected), and P&G, Honeywell and Union Pacific report before the open, Newmont and Western Digital after the close. A claims number under 200,000 feeds hike fears, so trim rate-sensitive positions if the 10-year runs above 5.20%.
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