Good Morning BullBuzzers!
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool."
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Alphabet fell about 10% after hours on a miss, and ServiceNow and Fortinet sank on guidance, so S&P 500 futures are down about 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures about 1%, with the 10-year at 5.04% and Brent near $110.
GDP and PCE hit at 8:30, Amazon reports tonight, and the idea is Delta ($DAL).
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #1: Master Yourself
Three big names gapped down on guidance this week: F5 on Wednesday, then Alphabet, ServiceNow, and Fortinet overnight. The urge to buy the dip or panic out is the trade, and it fails most often at 9:30 when spreads are wide and data is landing.
Write your plan before the open: which levels you will buy, what you will skip, and the size you can hold. Core PCE prints at 8:30, and with two Fed members voting to hike, a hot number can reprice everything in minutes.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today's issue.
📰 HEADLINES
The Fed holds, but two members wanted a hike. Rates stay at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting for an increase. The 10-year rose 5 bps to 5.04%, and a December hike is priced near 77% to 78%.
(CappNotes, Rock & Turner, Motley Fool)
Alphabet falls about 10% after hours while Microsoft rises about 3%. Alphabet missed and burned cash even though Cloud reached $30.7 billion. Microsoft gained on Azure growth of 48%.
(CappNotes, Rock & Turner, Yahoo Finance)
ServiceNow and Fortinet drop on guidance. ServiceNow is down about 20% premarket despite 21% subscription growth, and Fortinet is down about 26%. F5 fell 20% Wednesday on the same pattern.
(CappNotes, Rock & Turner, StockAnalysis)
Oil slips toward $110 on Iran diplomacy. Brent settled at $115.32 Wednesday and WTI is near $102 as Iranian and U.S. officials trade overtures. Talks can collapse, so treat the drop as fragile.
(Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, CappNotes, Rock & Turner)
Lilly jumps on a raise while Caterpillar sinks on an unchanged outlook. Lilly lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $91 billion to $92 billion and is up about 4%. Caterpillar is down about 9% despite adjusted EPS of $7.20.
(Investing.com, CoinCentral, PR Newswire)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Delta is a major U.S. airline that also owns an oil refinery in Pennsylvania.
Delta cut its 2026 guidance on Oct. 9 to $5.10 to $5.60 a share because fuel costs ran up more than 60%, and the stock bottomed at $74.63 on Oct. 19. Brent is now near $110 and falling on Iran talks, so the stock has bounced while the bad news is already in the price.
Iran talks can collapse and send oil back above $115. Next earnings are expected in mid-January, outside the window.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird's-Eye: Futures point lower, with the Nasdaq-100 down about 1% on the Alphabet and ServiceNow news. Do not buy the first dip before the 8:30 data. A 0.4% core PCE pushes December hike odds and the 10-year, so watch 5.10%.
Ground Level: Alphabet, ServiceNow and Fortinet gap down while Microsoft and Lilly gap up. Wait for each gap-down to hold its opening low before you touch it. The ECB and Bank of England also decide today.
Under The Hood: GDP, PCE, and jobless claims all print at 8:30. Amazon, Intel, and Coinbase report after the close, so keep size small enough to survive a hot PCE and a bad earnings reaction back-to-back.
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