Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but the one most responsive to change.”
TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Amazon fell about 6% and Intel about 25% before the open on spending and guidance, so Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 2% after Alphabet’s worst day in over 20 years, even as nine of eleven sectors rose Thursday and the 10-year eased to about 4.90%.
The idea is Prologis ($PLD), and the Employment Cost Index lands at 8:30.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #3: Follow The Money Into Sectors
Thursday’s S&P 500 loss was 0.3%, but that average hid a split. Health care rose 2.4%, real estate 2.2%, staples and utilities 1.5% each, while technology fell 1.2% and communications 1.9% as Alphabet had its worst day in over 20 years. Money did not leave the market; it changed address.
A reader who sees only the index calls it a dip, and a reader who sees the sectors sees a rotation out of AI spending stories and into rate-sensitive and defensive groups. Yields helped: the 10-year slid from 4.98% toward 4.90%, and that is what lifts landlords and utilities.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Amazon and Intel sink on spending and guidance. Amazon fell about 6% premarket as trailing free cash flow turned to negative $42.4 billion on $77.3 billion of quarterly capex. Intel dropped about 25% on a weak fourth-quarter outlook.
(Reuters via Investing.com, Saxo, Current Logic)
Alphabet had its worst day in over 20 years. It fell 12.6% Thursday, erasing roughly $497 billion of value, and pulled the Nasdaq-100 down 1.4%. The S&P 500 lost only 0.3%.
(CoinCentral, Saxo, StockAnalysis)
Inflation runs hot, growth runs hotter. September PCE rose 0.5% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago, with core at 0.3% and 3.1%. Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4%, the fastest in a year, and the 10-year still fell to 4.98%.
(Saxo, Advisor Perspectives, FXStreet)
Exxon and Chevron beat as Brent climbs. Exxon earned $4.23 a share against $4.13 expected, with a $20 billion 2027 buyback, and Chevron earned $5.28 against $4.88. Brent is near $113.50 as Washington weighs options on Iran.
(Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters)
Thrive agrees to take ADT private at $10 a share. The deal is about $15.3 billion including debt, and the stock jumped 33% to $9.87. The small gap to $10 is the market’s bet that it closes.
(StockAnalysis, SEC filings)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Prologis is the world’s largest owner of warehouses and distribution centers, a real estate investment trust (REIT) that collects rent from retailers, shippers, and e-commerce firms.
REITs trade like bonds with rent attached, so they fall when yields climb and rise when yields ease. Prologis slid from $133.55 on Oct 13 to a $123.43 low on Oct 19 even after it beat on core FFO ($1.60 against $1.58) and raised its 2026 outlook, which makes this a rate selloff, not a business problem. Real estate was the second-best sector Thursday, and the 10-year is easing.
A hot Employment Cost Index or hawkish Fed talk pushes yields back up, and December hike odds sit near 72%. Next earnings are expected in mid-January, outside the window.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 2% and S&P futures about 1%, so expect a gap-down open led by AI names. Do not buy the first flush, because Amazon and Intel gaps often fade or extend within the first hour. Let the 9:45 Chicago PMI settle first.
Ground Level: Intel, Amazon and Reddit gap down hard while Exxon, Chevron and Mondelez gap up. Skip catching any of the gap-downs until each holds its opening low for 15 minutes. Energy and defensives are where the money is landing.
Under The Hood: The Employment Cost Index at 8:30 is the wage test behind December hike odds, and a hot print pushes the 10-year back over 5%. Keep size small enough to survive a hot ECI and a weak open in the same hour.
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