Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“Plan the trade and trade the plan.”
⚡ TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
Brent crashed 7.6% to $104.77 on U.S.-Iran talk hopes, lifting consumer and financial stocks while tech and energy fell; the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, and the 10-year eased to about 4.9%.
Futures are flat ahead of Election Day, 10:00 job openings and AMD tonight, and the idea is Royal Caribbean ($RCL).
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #7: Build A Process, Not Predictions
Monday showed how little a prediction is worth. Over the weekend, the market priced a standoff with Iran, then Brent fell 7.6% on one day of diplomacy while consumer stocks jumped and energy dropped 4%. Tonight’s Senate result is the same kind of bet, with Polymarket and Kalshi near 78% for Democrats and PredictIt at 74%.
A forecaster guesses the outcome, while a process decides in advance what to do under each one. Write down tonight’s scenarios, the level that would change your mind and the size you will hold, then act on the tape instead of the headline.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
Oil plunges 7.6% on Iran talks. Brent settled at $104.77, and WTI at $96.46 after Tehran said Qatar-mediated talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its conditions. Goldman still sees about $27 of war premium in the price.
(Rigzone, OilPrice.com, CappNotes, Kitco)
Apple and Palantir slip after earnings. Apple’s revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion, but its margin guide of 45% to 46% and soft iPad sales sent shares down roughly 3% to 4%. Palantir’s revenue jumped 96% to $2.31 billion, yet new contract value grew only 6%, and shares are down about 6% pre-market.
(MacRumors, StockTitan, Tradingpedia)
Marvell agrees to buy Lumentum for about $115 billion in stock. The all-stock AI optics deal sent Lumentum down 18.6% and Marvell down 12.7%. Investors are worried about dilution and the price paid.
(StockTitan, CappNotes, SEC filings)
Shopify tumbles after earnings. Revenue rose 32% to $3.74 billion, but shipments and subscription revenue missed estimates, and shares are down roughly 16% to 19% pre-market. High expectations did the damage.
(Investing.com, StockTitan, Stocktwits)
Yields ease, but the Fed still faces a hike debate. The 10-year fell about 3.5 basis points to 4.89% as oil dropped, while Polymarket and Kalshi still price a December hike near 72%. Friday’s October jobs report is the next test.
(CappNotes, StockTitan, Polymarket, Kalshi)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Royal Caribbean is one of the world’s three big cruise operators, selling vacations on Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity and Silversea ships plus private island destinations.
Fuel is one of a cruise line’s highest costs, so Brent’s 7.6% drop reaches RCL’s margins faster than almost any other consumer name, and the stock rose 4.5% Monday while $XLY gained 2.4%. On Oct 27, it beat its own third-quarter EPS guide ($6.57 vs $6.26 to $6.36), raised full-year adjusted EPS to $17.85 to $17.95 and said 2027 bookings are running ahead of normal at higher prices.
Netanyahu reportedly wants strikes after the midterms, and a collapse in talks would send Brent and RCL the other way. The zone sits below Monday’s close and may not fill. Next earnings are expected late January, outside the window.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: Futures are flat after a day when oil fell 7.6%, and the Nasdaq-100 lost 1.4%, so the market is rotating, not panicking. Election night can whipsaw, so keep size at half until the Senate picture clears. Do not chase the cyclical pop or buy the energy dip.
Ground Level: Shopify and Palantir show the market punishing high expectations, so skip catching either until it holds its pre-market low for 15 minutes. Buy pullbacks in the leaders, $XLY (+2.4%) and $XLF (+1.9%), instead of the broken AI names.
Under The Hood: JOLTS job openings and factory orders land at 10:00, then AMD, Arista, Amgen and Super Micro report tonight. A hot JOLTS number revives the December hike bet near 72%, so tighten stops on rate-sensitive longs. A soft one gives the cyclical rally room to run.
In partnership with
More patients say ”Yes” with Cherry Payment Plans
Had enough of, “Let me think about it?” With Cherry, patients can apply for financing solutions on their phones in about 35 seconds - and 90% of them are approved*.
The result? Practices have seen acceptance rates rising by as much as 50%!
* These figures come from Cherry’s provider case studies, so individual results vary. Details at withcherry.com/provider-reviews. Payment options through Cherry are issued by the following financing partners: withcherry.com/financing-partners
For education only — not financial advice. BullBuzz™ by TRDR Media shares opinion and analysis, not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security. TRDR Media is not a registered investment adviser and does not manage or solicit funds. Trading and investing carry a substantial risk of loss and aren't suitable for everyone. Any prices, levels, or data may be delayed or estimated, and past results or prior calls don't guarantee future performance. You alone are responsible for your decisions. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading.
