Good Morning BullBuzzers!
“A rally you can explain with one chart is a rally you can trade. Find the chart.”
⚡TODAY IN 10 SECONDS
The Dow jumped 3%, and Brent crude fell 8.7% to $94.62 as traders bet a Democratic Congress will rein in the Iran war, while chips fell and Qualcomm is down about 10% pre-market.
Our idea is Alaska Air ($ALK), a cheaper-fuel play, with jobless claims at 8:30 and Friday’s jobs report next.
FOCUS OF THE DAY
Secret #2: Respect The Macro Tape
Wednesday’s rally was about oil, not stocks. Brent fell 8.7% to $94.62, a two-month low, after Vice President Vance blamed the Iran war for the midterm losses and traders bet Congress will push Trump to pull back. Cheaper oil dragged the 10-year yield down to 4.88% (yield is what government debt pays, and lower yields ease pressure on borrowers), lifting consumer, housing, and travel stocks while energy and defense fell.
The macro tape sets the backdrop for everything, so read oil and yields before you pick stocks. Chips were the exception because a different macro force, data-center permit fears, outweighed the cheap-oil tailwind.
Find all 10 Secrets to Success at the bottom of today’s issue.
📰 HEADLINES
The Dow surges 3% on its best day since April 2025. It rose 1,569 points to 53,356, the S&P 500 gained 1.6% to 7,688.62, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4% as investors bet divided power in Washington limits abrupt policy changes. Futures are mixed this morning, Dow up and Nasdaq down.
(AP via Manila Times, BigGo Finance, Rallies.ai, Investing.com)
Oil collapses as Vance blames the Iran war. Brent fell 8.7% to a two-month low after the vice president tied the midterm losses to the war, and traders bet a Democratic Congress could push Trump to pull back. Brent is up about 2% this morning.
(AP via Manila Times, BigGo Finance, FXStreet)
Yields fall and private hiring beats. The 10-year slid to 4.88% from 4.95% as cheaper oil eased inflation worries, and ADP reported 86,000 private jobs versus 69,000 expected. Friday’s jobs report now decides whether December hike odds stay near 79%.
(AP via Manila Times, BigGo Finance, Fox Business, CNBC)
Chips sink on a data-center permit scare. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.1% to a six-month low after Democrats won governorships in data-center states, and CoreWeave lost 9.9% and Micron 7%. UBS says project pauses put about 30% of expected 2028 data-center additions at risk.
(BigGo Finance, AP via Manila Times, Rallies.ai)
Qualcomm and Arm slide after earnings. Qualcomm fell about 10% pre-market as handset revenue dropped 26% to $5.14 billion, and Arm slid after guidance failed to beat estimates. Qualcomm’s data-center forecast was strong but not enough.
(Reuters via The Star, Investing.com, Rallies.ai)
🎯 IDEA OF THE DAY
Alaska Air Group operates Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines, a major West Coast carrier.
Fuel was its swing factor: it paid $3.94 a gallon last quarter, up 57%, lost $147 million, and guided fourth-quarter fuel to $4.65 to $4.85. A Brent drop from the $110s to the $90s flows straight to profit, and $ALK lagged, sinking to $32.33 on Oct 22, so it has more room than the leaders.
Any Iran headline can send oil back up, and it already gained 8.75% Wednesday. The zone sits below the $40.00 close and may not fill. Next earnings are expected late January, outside the window.
🔔 HEADING INTO THE OPEN
Bird’s-Eye: The rally was wide but not deep: the Dow gained 3% while the Nasdaq 100 rose under 1%, and Nasdaq futures are lower this morning. Do not chase the Dow’s best day in years. Hold half size until Friday’s jobs report, because a hot print would revive December hike pricing near 79%.
Ground Level: Cruise and airline stocks rose 6% to 9% Wednesday, while Qualcomm, Arm and Snap open down 7% to 11%. Buy pullbacks in cheap-fuel names rather than gap-ups, and do not catch chip knives until $QQQ stops lagging $SPY.
Under The Hood: Jobless claims land at 8:30, and Southern Company reports before the open, then comes Friday’s jobs report and Tuesday’s CPI. Strong jobs with Brent rising means tighten stops on rate-sensitive longs, while soft jobs with oil under $97 means let winners run.
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