Good Morning!
“Remember your goal is to trade well, not to trade often.”
01
Earnings
HPE detonates — stock surges ~30% after hours on a historic beat
$HPE ( ▼ 1.64% ) reported Q2 revenue of $10.7B (+40% YoY), crushing the $9.79B estimate. EPS of $0.79 blew past the $0.53 consensus. Networking revenue exploded 148% to $2.7B, and HPE raised its full-year EPS guidance from $2.30–$2.50 all the way to $3.35–$3.45. This is the quarter that validates the AI infrastructure buildout thesis at scale.
02
Markets
S&P 500 closes above 7,600 for the first time — Nasdaq crosses 27K
$SPY ( ▲ 1.04% ) +0.26% to 7,599.96 · $QQQ ( ▲ 2.51% ) +0.42% to 27,086. All three major indexes hit new all-time intraday highs on Monday. Tech and energy were the only S&P sectors in the green. Nine straight weeks of gains — and the whisper is that a short-term correction window is opening.
03
Macro
ISM Manufacturing PMI hits 54% — highest since May 2022, and prices are screaming
May's ISM print came in at 54.0, beating expectations and accelerating from April's 52.7 — the 19th consecutive month of economic expansion. The catch: Prices Paid held at 82.1%, the second-highest reading since April 2022. Strong growth + persistent inflation = the Fed's hands stay tied. No cuts in 2026 is looking more like a floor than a ceiling.
04
AI
Jensen drops the Vera CPU at Computex — NVDA +6%, Dell +10%, HP Inc +8%
$NVDA ( ▲ 2.95% ) CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the Vera CPU at Computex, calling it "our new major growth driver" — with millions already in production and availability starting fall 2026. The NYSE is one of the first confirmed customers, using HPE's new Vera-powered server rack to process 1 trillion transaction messages per day. The AI buildout just leveled up from GPUs into the CPU layer.
05
Crypto
Bitcoin opens June below $72K — Fear & Greed hits 23, ETF streak bleeds $2.97B
$BTC ( ▲ 1.5% ) C closed May down 4.4% — its third red monthly candle of 2026. Spot ETFs logged a record $2.97B in outflows over 10 sessions, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 23 (Fear), the lowest since the April washdown. Iran ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend, Brent is back above $93, and macro pressure is compounding. The key level: $73,869 — BTC needs to reclaim it on a 3-day close or the June breakdown accelerates.
HEADING INTO THE OPEN
ES futures opened mostly flat to slightly green overnight, suggesting a calm start to the week. Futures aren’t showing major fear right now — no sharp selloff, volatility spike, or obvious risk-off positioning. While the move is modest, early action leans slightly bullish for tomorrow’s open, with markets appearing comfortable with the current backdrop heading into the new week.
Bird's Eye: The Iran stalemate is cracking — but slowly. The US and Iran reportedly agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that extends the current ceasefire and gradually restores the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which pulled oil off its highs and gave bond markets some room to breathe. The 10-year yield has pulled back to 4.46% after touching a 16-month high of 4.7% on May 20th, with softer-than-expected PCE data adding to the relief. The 30-year, however, isn't fully convinced — it's still sitting at 5.116%, just off its highest level since July 2007. Don't mistake the dip for a reprieve: futures pricing now expects no Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a 70% probability of a rate hike in 2027. The bond market is playing the long game.
Ground Level: All eyes on Taipei tonight. Jensen Huang is delivering his Computex keynote at 11 p.m. ET tonight (June 1, 11 a.m. local time), and the AI trade is coiling around it. $NVDA ( ▲ 2.95% ) already posted record Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6 billion — 85% year-over-year growth — beating estimates, but shares dipped on the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic. The real action this year has actually been in the second-order plays: $LITE ( ▼ 2.3% ) is up 121% YTD and $AMAT ( ▲ 4.08% ) has jumped 67%, both riding the AI infrastructure buildout. The market has moved past "will AI spend hold up" and into "who else gets paid when it does."
Under The Hood: $BTC ( ▲ 1.5% ) is hovering around $73,800 as June opens, and the prediction markets aren't giving much away. Polymarket's "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?" market closed virtually coin-flip, with 49% pricing an up day — about as indecisive as it gets. The crowd did correctly call Bitcoin hitting $80K at some point in May, but the post-peak consolidation has the market rangebound. With macro headwinds from elevated yields and the Iran MOU still unverified in practice, crypto is waiting for a cleaner catalyst to make its next directional move.
WHY THIS MATTERS
The market is in a classic "good news, but…" moment. The Iran situation is de-escalating just enough to bring oil and yields off their extremes — but not enough to flip the Fed narrative or put rate cuts back on the table. Meanwhile, NVDA's blowout quarter couldn't even hold its own stock up, which tells you something about where valuations are relative to expectations. With Computex kicking off tonight — NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel all in Taipei under the theme "AI Together" — the next 72 hours are a live stress test for whether the AI infrastructure trade has another leg or is simply running on narrative fumes. Bitcoin sitting at $73K through all of this is crypto saying: we're watching, not leading. The four things that matter right now are the Iran MOU holding, the 30-year yield direction, Jensen Huang's Computex announcements, and whether BTC can reclaim $75K with conviction heading into June.
TRADING HIGHER
IBM $IBM ( ▼ 5.05% )
Momentum tied to the quantum computing narrative, following the President’s recent quantum endorsement
IBM recently committed $10B toward quantum initiatives, positioning the company as a major beneficiary as investors rotate into the theme
HP Enterprise $HPE ( ▼ 1.64% )
Investors watching for updates on AI server demand, margins, and enterprise infrastructure spending trends
Arm Holdings Plc $ARM ( ▲ 4.91% )
Shares surged after hours as upcoming Nvidia and Microsoft AI PCs are expected to run next-gen CPUs built on Arm architecture
Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 8.7% )
Crossed $1,000 for the first time ever, reinforcing strong momentum in the AI memory trade
Continued strength supported by sold-out HBM supply, AI demand, and improving sentiment around semiconductor infrastructure names
TRADING LOWER
IonQ $IONQ ( ▲ 3.4% )
After explosive runs tied to recent quantum enthusiasm and government headlines, traders may watch for cooling momentum or profit-taking across the theme
Cboe Volatility Index $VIX ( ▲ 2.32% )
Fear continues to come out of the market as volatility expectations decline. No major risk-off positioning, panic hedging, or headline shock showing up in options pricing
Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▼ 1.21% )
Pharma giant seeing some overnight pressure as traders continue digesting GLP-1 competition, valuation sensitivity, and obesity-market expectations.
After a massive long-term run, sentiment remains highly tied to weight-loss demand, pipeline execution, and growth durability
OUR 5-STEP STRATEGY
1. Everything starts with self-care: be well-rested, well-hydrated, well-nourished, and mentally able to compete at the high level that is required in the financial markets
2. First scan of the day is macro-focused: look for large events or economic numbers that have the ability to control the trading day
3. Look for sector moves that will provide the opportunity for the day
4. Distil macros and sector to see how it aligns with general market themes & create a list of tradeable stocks and opportunities that fit current trading strategy
5. Analyzing prior day(s) trades; if done right, there is more to learn from losing trades than the winning ones
NICK’S PICKS
• $NVT ( ▲ 3.56% ) / nVent — $171.55 (+2.7%), AH $173.9. Nick full-sized the shares. Electrical/power-management infra, direct datacenter-buildout beneficiary. His biggest conviction commit today — size, not a starter.
• $INFQ ( ▲ 1.42% ) / Infleqtion — $17.69 (+9.1%), AH $17.90. Nick took a starter above $18.57. Quantum pure-play, NVIDIA partner, ~$3.5B "sleeper" cap. Catalyst-confirmed move on 29M vol.
• $FLNC ( ▲ 5.89% ) / Fluence — $27.15 (+44%), AH $28.93. Nick: "FLNC let's go." Grid-scale energy storage — the day's monster mover on 4x volume. Momentum + storage rotation, but chasing a +44% day needs a tight leash.
• $CLS ( ▼ 2.06% ) / Celestica — $426.55 (+10.7%), AH $436, new all-time high. Datacenter/enterprise manufacturing off the Alphabet capex wave. Nick's thesis name (he's out, regrets the cut, sees room to +$30B mcap).
• $GTLB ( ▲ 0.34% ) / GitLab — $33.79 (+8.8%) into tomorrow's print. Nick sees a real shot at a revenue beat. Event name — see below.
IDEA OF THE DAY
The trade is AI-infrastructure direct beneficiaries in full breakout — CLS printing a new ATH, INFQ and NVT confirming. That's the tape. Confirms-or-kills level: CLS holding above its ~$426 breakout shelf — lose that and the datacenter-beneficiary momentum is cooling.
Binary overlay is GTLB, reports after tomorrow's CLOSE — so it's a positioning name into the open, not open-and-go. The real entry is the post-print reaction Wed AM, not chasing pre-print.
REDDIT MARKET MOVERS
• $SPCE ( ▲ 2.01% ) #1 — 2,818 mentions (+1,817), 35k upvotes. $7.52 (+22%) on 286M shares = full retail squeeze, but already fading AH to $7.12. Pure momentum/blow-off — chasing this late is how you get bagheld. Direction is the crowd, not a thesis.
• $ASTS ( ▼ 5.58% ) #7 — 258 mentions. $105.65 (-6.8%). Buzzing on the FADE.
• $RKLB ( ▼ 0.69% ) #9 — 202 mentions. $122.39 (-14.7%). Loud because it got cut 15%, not because it's bid. Same tell.
• $HPE ( ▼ 1.64% ) #2 — 651 mentions (+580), rank 10→2. The earnings beat we covered, +35% AH. Reddit caught it after the move.
• $MU ( ▲ 8.7% ) #3 — 570 mentions. $1,035 (+6.6%), AH $1,040. Memory/HBM supercycle — this one's thesis-backed, not meme.
• $NVDA ( ▲ 2.95% ) #5 / $GOOG ( ▲ 1.48% ) #12 / $META ( ▲ 1.7% ) #10 ($600, -5%) — all churning on the $80B Google raise + Berkshire's $10B NVDA buy reshaping the AI-infra trade. META's loud because it's red.
• $NBIS ( ▲ 2.06% ) #13 — 151 mentions. $264 (+14.5%), AH $267. GPU-cloud/AI-compute — real momentum, thesis-aligned.
• $AVGO ( ▲ 4.7% ) #15 — $460 (+3%), AH $472. AI-semi strength.
PRE-MARKET (BMO):
• $DG ( ▲ 4.38% ) (Dollar General) — $109.93 cl, but bid to $115.76 AH (+5%), est $1.89. Low-end consumer bellwether. Someone's already positioning into it AH. The read is comps + guidance on the pressured consumer — beat+raise confirms the consumer-resilience trade, a miss hits the whole staples/discount complex. High-IV; defined risk only given the gap already in it.
• $NIO ( ▼ 0.59% ) — $5.98 (+6.8% into the print), Q1. China-EV high-beta: deliveries, margin, cash burn. Ran INTO the print so there's "sell-the-news" risk. Lotto/momentum lane, size for zero.
• $SIG ( ▲ 2.02% ) (Signet) — $84.82, est $1.32. Jewelry/discretionary; comps + guidance. Faded into print, lower priority.
• China cluster —$MOMO ( ▼ 2.68% ),$GOTU ( ▲ 1.23% ),$TIGR ( 0.0% ) (Tiger Brokers): ADRs, headline/sentiment-driven, high beta. Watch-only unless you're playing China.
POST-MARKET (AMC):
• $PANW ( ▲ 2.0% ) (Palo Alto) — $300.48 (+6.7% into print, just reclaimed $300), est $0.43. The marquee report of the day. Cybersecurity = the security layer of the AI buildout; NGS ARR, RPO + billings are what move it. Ran hot into the print so expectations are elevated, IV rich. Cleanest play here: defined-risk debit if you lean direction, or wait for the post-print reaction. Fits the room's AI thesis.
• $GTLB ( ▲ 0.34% ) (GitLab) — $33.79 (+8.8% into print), est -$0.06, ±~20% implied. Nick's revenue-beat name. Duo/AI guidance is the real swing, not the EPS line. Small defined-risk into it; the cleaner entry is the post-print IV-crush reaction Wed AM.
• $ULTA ( ▲ 1.19% ) (Ulta Beauty) — $500.77, est $6.85. Beauty retail: comps + margins + guidance. Defensive discretionary read, not the room's momentum lane.